It’ll be a case of deja vu for the Miami Dolphins with another bottom feeder of an opponent in town for them to pad their record against in Week 6 NFL odds. It’s been a rough start for the Carolina Panthers who are the only winless team in the league. Given what we’ve seen from these teams this season, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see the Dolphins as 13.5-point favorite on the NFL odds with a game total of 48.5.
There’s a lot to break down here, including some obvious strengths vs weaknesses as well as the possibility of this being a lookahead spot for the Dolphins. Let’s dig in and I’ll give you my free NFL picks for Panthers vs. Dolphins on October 15th.
Panthers vs Dolphins odds
Panthers vs Dolphins predictions
It’ll be a second straight week where the Miami Dolphins are hosting a team that’s in the conversation for being the worst in the NFL. They made easy work of the Giants last week, covering the 12.5-point spread and winning by 15 points, but here’s the thing… They really should have won by a lot more.
Miami won the yards per play battle 9.7 to 3.9 which is a bigger gap than they produced in their 50-point win against the Broncos in Week 3. The Dolphins left points on the table vs. the Giants whose offense failed to score a touchdown in the game, while Miami didn’t score at all in the fourth quarter. Some sloppiness from Tua Tagovailoa also resulted in a pick-six that was returned for 102 yards on a drive where the Dolphins should have been the team scoring points.
The point I’m getting at is that last week’s game was more lopsided than the score indicated. Had Miami won by a margin of 20+, perhaps the spread for this game would be even bigger, so we might be getting a little bit of value with the spread inside of 14 points.
This also looks like a good opportunity for Miami’s offense to continue to fly. The Carolina Panthers are in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed per pass attempt and opponent completion %. They also haven’t fared well in games where they faced a respectable offense in matchups against the Seahawks, Vikings, and Lions. In all three of those games, they allowed six yards per play or more.
Now they’ll face the team that leads the NFL in yards per play, yards per pass attempt, points per game, and Tua ranks third in completion %.
As for the Panthers offense, their fans will clearly need to be patient with Bryce Young as he and this offense are off to a poor start… to say the least. The offense has scored just five total touchdowns in Young’s four starts with the Panthers scoring 17 or fewer in three of them. Miami’s defense has only allowed one touchdown at home this season in their two games, and they will look to bully this weak offense like they did to the Giants last week.
Finally, we’re likely to hear a lot about this being a “lookahead” spot for the Dolphins. It’s a unique scheduling spot for them with a second straight bottom-of-the-barrel opponent, however, next week they play in Philadelphia on Sunday night which is one of their biggest games of the season.
It’s a bit of a guessing game as to whether or not Miami will be properly motivated or perhaps they could take their foot off the gas allowing for a backdoor cover, but the team doesn’t really have a history of playing down to the competition under Mike McDaniel. They’re 6-2 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season and covered both times as a double-digit favorite.
If you’ve been reading up until this point, I think it’s pretty clear where I’m going with this – give me the Dolphins to cover the 13.5-point spread.
My best bet: Dolphins (-13.5 -108 at DraftKings)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Panthers vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Dolphins -13.5Dolphins 1H team total Over 16.5
+147 at FanDuel
In what I expect to be a very one-sided contest, we are goin to build our same game parlay around our best bet which is Dolphins -13.5.
The Dolphins offense has come out extremely strong to start games all season long. They lead the NFL with 20.6 first-half points per game and have topped 16.5 first-half points in four of their five contests.
The Panthers are coming off a game where they got smacked in the first half by the Lions, allowing 28 points. On the road this season, they’re allowing 34.3 points per game which is the second-worst in the NFL.
With the way both teams enter this game, I’m banking on another quick start by the Dolphins on route to an easy cover.
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Panthers vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
This will also be the second-straight matchup for the Panthers in a game that features a big spread. They closed as a 9.5-point underdog to the Lions last week and got smacked by 18 points. In addition to not having an outright win this season, Carolina still hasn’t covered a spread with their ATS record sitting at 0-4-1.
This will be the third time the Dolphins are a double-digit favorite since the start of last season. They covered in the previous two – last week vs the Giants and last season as a 14-point favorite vs the Texans.
We know the Dolphins have a high ceiling for scoring as we’ve seen three of their five games produce 68 or more points. Two of the Panthers’ last three games have gotten into the sixties when they combined for 64 points with the Seahawks and 66 with the Lions. I won’t be placing a bet on the total, but lean towards the Over.
